Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Nuttin'

I'm just hanging around, watching the tape, working on getting a backtesting package up and running. Another day of VWAP zeroing in on 161.8% of the gap up. I'm still in my positions. POMO tomorrow, so I'm going to see of the thesis holds or was just a fluke. Only one I'm really kicking myself for is the tech short - but my view is that tech will rollover first and I'm not afraid to be a bit early on that trade. Most of the profits will be made in the early phases of that - much like the run up has gone.

A further examination of the charts reveals my main mistake: Not following through on my indicator of waiting for the CCI to cross 100. This was a big one - had I waited I would have gotten exactly the move I was looking for, just with a different timeframe. The intra-day down move happened. But it happened differently from all the others which preceded it. Go figure.

Moving forward, I'm going to split my high-risk money in two parts. One will continue to scalp short. The other will be kept in cash waiting for degenerate small-cap biotech stocks (and a few others, like BPOP) to pop and taking the 10 minute trades on those awful beasts. I've missed out on a number of those on my screener due to lack of settled cash. My low-risk money has been withdrawn from precious metals and is sitting in a money market fund for the time being, waiting for more macro clarity before being allocated. If backtesting reveals a good trend on the gap-fibonacci theory I've been exploring, I may try to work that. I'd probably need to trade futures for that size of move to be really viable though.

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