Monday, August 24, 2009

An investment is a trade gone bad...

I'm still in. I don't understand what's so magical about 1037, but it's acting as resistance/support. Have the VWAP algo's taken a shine to it?

At any rate, there remains a question for me to ponder. Why didn't things go according to plan. Is it that the correlation I saw was only coincidental? Or has something changed?

One possibility is that the people who run the equities-ramping program are aware of the attention that has been gathered and have changed the operations of the program. Another is that a critical mass of traders have started to front-run the expected late-day surge.

At any rate, I'm prepared to take a bit more pain. We're extremely overbought, though that concept has had very little meaning of late. I expect to have enough of a pullback to at least recoup the morning's losses. I need to sit down and draw up a new battleplan in the meantime.

Lessons:
I should have waited for opportunity to get long instead of trying to swing from short - since higher was what I expected in the medium-term.

I should possibly have waited until premarket to go short. Depends on what happened on those other POMO down-days and when the falls really began. Right now I have no way of seeing historical pre/post-market action though.

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